But if markets react badly to the global monetary tightening that 2014 promises, capital flight and weakening currencies could mean that growth is limited to 3.7% this year and 2.8% in 2015.
Adding to the sketchiness of the 2014 growth picture is the growing divergence in the outlook for our RGMs. The liquidity that has underpinned strong growth in some of the RGMs over the past few years could dry up as the major advanced economies start to raise interest rates. However, before these rates rise, there is a window of opportunity for the RGMs to press on with key economic reforms.
For more information, please see the attached study.