ACTMEDIA NEWS AGENCY

  |  2013-01-15

Study: Population's deposits in domestic currency could slide given 5 pct nominal interest

The nominal interest rate on the population's bank deposits will be 5 percent as regards the deposits in the domestic currency

In this context, the population's deposits in lei could slide, while the forex deposits might remain steady by volume, if the national currency does not appreciate heavily against the euro, an eFin.ro study reveals.

 

'The interest rate on the deposits in lei had real positive net average values in 2008 and 2009 and afterwards real negative values between 2010 and 2012. The interest on deposits will most likely remain real negative in 2013 too, somewhere in the interval minus 0.5 percent - minus 1 percent, as long as the commercial banks do not increase credit for the companies and do not unfreeze the consumption loans for the population, especially that the inflation's volatility can be lifted. Therefore, the nominal interest on bank deposits will be 5 percent on average in 2013. In this context, the population's deposits in lei will most likely decline. The forex deposits will remain steady by volume in 2013, if the local currency does not appreciate heavily against the euro, with this possible event making the Romanians highly interested in taking out loans in lei,' says economic analyst Dragos Cabat, managing partner at eFin.ro.

 

He also said that the Romanians are generally interested in saving products with a 3 month term. This says a lot about their confidence in the volatility of the inflation and the exchange rate, as well as about the commercial banks' policies to attract the population's savings.
 

Over the past five years, as the volume of the bad loans has continued to increase, the margin between loans and deposits has also moved upwards, exceeding 6.5 percent as regards the personal needs loans, and these values are likely to keep steady also this year, according to Dragos Cabat.

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